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Foreign exchange markets
At the beginning of last week during trading at the exchange the dollar rose higher than 70 rubles, fell below a mark of 69 rubles. The negative factors influencing the Russian currency, analysts called growth of escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, and helped to win back falling to ruble news about the rising in price oil
Brent oil during trading at the London exchange ICE on Monday exceeded $55 for barrel, and on Tuesday rose in price also to $58 that gave to decline of dollar below marks of 65 rubles. Further oil quotations went down and pulled for themselves ruble — on Wednesday for barrel of oil of the Brent brand in London gave $55,54, and the dollar was trading on a mark of 68 rubles.
Week ended with growth of oil quotations and the next strengthening of ruble — at auction on Friday for dollar less than 66 rubles, and for euro — about 75,8 rubles gave ruble. The official rate of US dollar to ruble set by the Bank of Russia since February 7, 2015 made 66,0432 rub, and euro exchange rate – 75,6591rubley (falling honor for 2,3 rubles).
At the beginning of auction at the Moscow exchange on Monday February 9 the Russian currency began to become stronger strongly to dollar and euro. By 10:17 Moscow time dollar rate calculations fell to 68 kopeks to 66,30 rub, euro "tomorrow" — for 91 kopeks to 75,1 rub. In half an hour — by 10:46 — dollar rate fell to 1,51 rub to 65,47 rubles, and euro — for 1,73 rubles to 74,27 rubles.
The analyst of ITinvest Dmitry Solodin in the Smartweek broadcast argued on whether the situation which developed in the market of energy carriers is a harbinger of its recovery, or growth of quotations is only no more than "a technical rebound":
In January, 2015 investors brought out of Sberbank 309 billion rubles from ruble deposits — representatives of bank declared that transition of many investors to deposits in dollars is recorded. The profit of the largest Russian banks in 2014 decreased almost by 24%.
The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabyullina is convinced that dollar rate will not reach a point in 80 rubles and "such sharp" depreciation of ruble in the short term is not expected.
Against strengthening of ruble and an increase in prices for oil the Russian share indexes last week also showed growth. For example, on Wednesday, February 4, auction in the Russian stock market opened an increase in prices of the majority of liquid papers, And the index of MICEX rose by 0,45% — to a mark 1661,86 points. The ruble RTS Index grew by 2,63% — to 807,87 points.
Photo: Moscow Exchange
On Friday the index of MICEX exceeded 1750 points (height of 3,50%), and the RTS Index increased by 2,72% and made 826,40 points — such results were promoted by a number of the factors including expectations from negotiations of the leadership of Russia and the EU concerning a situation in Ukraine and also growth of oil quotations.
On Monday February 9 the index of MICEX updated a maximum since April, 2011 and By 11:47 Moscow time increased by 3,53% to 1817,47 points, RTS exceeded 850 points, having risen by 5,84% to 874,67 points (at most since December, 2014) against strengthening of ruble.
The expert of ITinvest Vasily Oleynik in the weekly overview so described perspectives of the Russian market and mentioned risks which investors need to consider:
Inflation in Russia which already breaks sixteen-year records is the main driver for growth of the stock market. If to look at stock prices in a dollar equivalent, then there the positive any is not observed though the situation for the last week was a little stabilized. The situation in the Russian economy continues to worsen therefore other drivers for growth now to investors to find extremely difficult. Yes, if the end in Ukraine is put to the military conflict and the parties will manage to agree about everything, then it will give one more impulse of growth to the Russian market within 10%, however, of chances of it now very little therefore the risk of correction on the same value from the current marks outweighs now.
One more risk factor, not only for the Russian investors, but also for all stock markets, is Greece. Following the results of the first week of active negotiations of Greece it was not succeeded to convince the European partners to give to it more time for review of new conditions of cooperation especially as this is not about more serious concessions from creditors. Forthcoming Wednesday Ministers of Finance of the eurozone will hold the emergency meeting devoted to the Greek question. If to make concessions to Greece, then it will cause strong discontent of such countries as Spain, Italy, Portugal therefore we still should see next "circus". In February at Greece quite essential repayments on external debts therefore not and it is a lot of time for settlement with creditors. So far, A. Tsipras's slogans with possible failure to pay on debts, frighten the fourth day all European investors, and the Greek debt market is under the strongest pressure again. Wednesday will be in the most important afternoon this week therefore you should not do hasty purchases till this time.
Forecasts of a situation in the Russian market
The economic observer of RBC-TV Zhanna Nemtsova discussed with the investment consultant of ITinvest Pavel Deryabin of a tendency of the Russian financial market and the investment opportunities existing on it:
For today everything, thanks for attention. It is more than analytical materials from leading experts on the website ITinvest.
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