Photo: Ekaterina Kuzmina / RBC
The previous release of the information digest can be found according to this link.
Foreign exchange markets
Last week began with lowering of the credit rating of the country by S&P; agency; before the "garbage" and followed it decline of ruble — in the middle of the week of euro traded on a mark above of 77 rubles, and the dollar exceeded 69 rubles.
On Friday January 30 the Central bank declared decrease in a key rate by 2 percentage points — from 17% to 15% per annum. As the Minister of Finance of Russia Anton Siluanov reported, it was made because the authorities managed to slow down decline of ruble. The minister declared that ruble exchange rate now "is equilibrium". The head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabyullina declared that the rate in 15% is sufficient for inflation deceleration.
Here is how this solution in the weekly overview was commented by the chief economist of ITinvest Sergey Egishyants:
The Bank of Russia suddenly reduced a key rate by 2% to 15% – an explanation such is that inflation already will fall because of weak demand and the growing credit collapse. Logically, but such situation was and in December – however percent then flapped up: lifted it not because of the prices, and because of ruble – meanwhile, the last and nowadays, to put it mildly, does not grow. Wanted to help real sector? – but for it that 15% that 17%, in general approximately same: ultraboundary. Therefore to understand logic of the Central Bank it is difficult – therefore the market is scared: in October-December he saw the confusion of the power turning into panic (because on December 16 at ruble broke a roof) – recently everything it seems calmed down, but the new strange solution came now.
Right after the declaration of news of decrease in a key rate at the exchange there was the next jump of dollar rates and euro — the American currency rose in price to 71,8 rub (3 rubles higher than closing of previous day), and euro — to 81,55 rub (it is 3,875 rubles above than the level of closing of previous day).
The similar movements did not confuse representatives of the authorities — the First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov advised Russians to get used to unstable ruble exchange rate (earlier at a forum in Davos he declared that current crisis will be more serious, than in 2008). In confirmation of this Ministry of Economic Development read the forecast for the level of falling of economy of Russia — according to specialists of department decrease will make 3%.
New week began falling of ruble exchange rate at the exchange — both the dollar and euro took levels above closing on Friday. The Russian currency was not helped even by news about the grown prices of oil: the Brent brand the most part of last week bargained at the level of $48-49 for barrel, but during the last January auction the price sharply grew, having exceeded on a maximum a mark of $53 for barrel. On Monday at the ICE exchange the cost of futures for Brent with delivery in March fluctuates between $51 and $52 for barrel.
Sergey Egishyants described a situation in the oil market as follows:
Oil and gas continued to stand at bottoms, despite the spreading recession of wells in the USA and complaints of the secretary general of OPEC Al-Badri supposedly if now all cease to invest because of low cost, then in a couple of years the price can fly up to 200 dollars for a barrel; at the same time, the head of Goldman Sachs promises the Game (the oil trader in the past) soon 30. It seems to us that here bottoms will be until the end of the first quarter – then quite vigorous rebound will go: how vigorous, depends on final minima – we will wait a little though, maybe, and it is not necessary to wait because under closing of month oil vertically flew up.
According to analysts of Bloomberg, the ruble, quite perhaps, yet did not reach a bottom and can continue falling.
Start of last week in the Russian stock market took place in a negative key. The ruble index of MICEX lost within 2%, and the currency RTS Index sank almost for 4%.
Photo: Sergey Karpukhin/Reuters
The expert of ITinvest Vasily Oleynik called among the reasons of concern of investors a situation aggravation in Ukraine and growth of geopolitical risks:
[...] The output arises that February will be not best month for investors therefore you should not hurry with long-term purchases obviously now.
Week, however, the main Russian share indexes closed in different directions — added MICEX 0,5% and made 1647,69 points, the RTS Index dropped by 1,4% to a mark 737,35 points.
Forecasts for 2015
The economic observer of RBC-TV Zhanna Nemtsova discussed with the head of department on communications with investors of PAO "Severstal" Vladimir Zaluzhsky a situation in the markets of metallurgists and exporters, a new cycle in the raw market and forecasts of its development, and also a possibility of purchase of eurobonds, including for a wide range of investors at the Moscow Exchange
For today everything, thanks for attention. It is more than analytical materials from leading experts on the website ITinvest.
P. S. If you noticed a typographical error, the beaten link or other inaccuracy — write to us the personal message, and we quickly will correct everything.
P. P. S. We already wrote that on Saint Petersburg Stock Exchange the possibility of purchase of shares of the foreign companies appeared (Google, Facebook, for quite some time now Alibaba, etc.). Tomorrow (on February 3) online conference during which representatives of the Exchange and ITinvest will answer all questions on this subject will take place. Broadcasting will be available on the website according to the link.
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